Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.349235 0.398473 0.451945 0.514301 0.584995 0.662632 0.754340
2025-08-31 0.271759 0.335552 0.410209 0.503930 0.618357 0.753443 0.924974
2025-09-07 0.225346 0.298979 0.391206 0.514973 0.676517 0.880012 1.155671
2025-09-14 0.178321 0.253183 0.353128 0.495918 0.694286 0.959722 1.341530
2025-09-21 0.146295 0.221369 0.327779 0.488962 0.726275 1.062124 1.572810
2025-09-28 0.120459 0.193586 0.303254 0.478771 0.751654 1.158602 1.810291
2025-10-05 0.105977 0.180127 0.297311 0.494668 0.817332 1.322281 2.170301
2025-10-12 0.090840 0.162889 0.282586 0.494191 0.857050 1.451382 2.495339
2025-10-19 0.079550 0.150053 0.272836 0.500041 0.907501 1.603998 2.879843
2025-10-26 0.071208 0.140910 0.267829 0.513019 0.971650 1.787642 3.342268
2025-11-02 0.060304 0.125063 0.248223 0.496356 0.979896 1.874285 3.644347
2025-11-09 0.050123 0.108792 0.225177 0.469379 0.964450 1.915063 3.866474
2025-11-16 0.043177 0.098124 0.211855 0.460435 0.984761 2.029943 4.255316
2025-11-23 0.037198 0.088421 0.198932 0.450272 1.001244 2.140117 4.652253
2025-11-30 0.033669 0.083520 0.195379 0.459539 1.060056 2.344485 5.273475
2025-12-07 0.028702 0.074327 0.180833 0.442042 1.057895 2.420934 5.634156
2025-12-14 0.025191 0.067982 0.171722 0.435506 1.079418 2.551666 6.133581
2025-12-21 0.022022 0.061875 0.162128 0.426176 1.092889 2.666153 6.612699
2025-12-28 0.020491 0.059768 0.162009 0.440204 1.164893 2.925423 7.467755
2026-01-04 0.018437 0.055829 0.156549 0.439656 1.200415 3.102793 8.150188
2026-01-11 0.016868 0.052959 0.153427 0.444787 1.251419 3.325162 8.976310
2026-01-18 0.015712 0.051075 0.152679 0.456301 1.321237 3.604565 9.987797
2026-01-25 0.013754 0.046350 0.143120 0.441386 1.316463 3.690419 10.503561